Well hello sockeye!!

"The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday August 24 to review stock assessment data on the Fraser River sockeye runs, plan fisheries and review migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed. Test fishing catches of sockeye have continued to be strong in the marine approach routes over the past several days. These catches along with other assessment data have caused run size estimates for Fraser sockeye to increase. At the meeting today, the Panel approved increasing the run sizes for several Fraser River sockeye runs and adopting the following estimates of their 50% marine migration timing through Area 20: Early Summer-run sockeye increased from 2,900,000 fish to 3,200,000 fish (August 7 marine timing); Summer-run sockeye increased from 4,000,000 fish to 4,500,000 fish, (August 13 marine timing); Harrison sockeye increased from 900,000 fish to 1,000,000 fish (August 8 marine timing); Late Shuswap/Weaver sockeye increased from 11,000,000 fish to 16,000,000 fish (August 19 marine timing); and the forecast of 241,000 fish from the Birkenhead stock-group. The total run size estimate for Late-run sockeye (which includes Late Shuswap, Weaver, Harrison and Birkenhead sockeye) has increased from 12,141,000 fish to 17,241,000 fish. Current run size assessments suggest that the total Fraser sockeye return this season is slightly over 25,000,000 fish (including 105,000 Early Stuart sockeye), which is the largest return since 1913."

Link

Too Little, Too Late?

From the front page of the Vancouver Sun:

"Wild salmon advocates expressed relief Thursday after Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that the federal government will stage a judicial inquiry into the collapse of sockeye salmon runs on the Fraser River.

Details will be announced Friday in Vancouver by Stockwell Day, federal Trade Minister and regional minister for British Columbia.

Day is expected to name a judge to head the inquiry and to announce terms of reference. The inquiry will have the legal power to compel witnesses to testify — meaning that federal scientists will have the freedom to discuss their concerns about sockeye without fear of repercussion.

Sockeye runs spawning in the Fraser drainage have been in a two-decade decline after years of spectacular abundance in the 1980s, and hit a 50-year low in summer 2009.

That has prompted concerns, as detailed in a recent book by B.C. author Alex Rose, that sockeye are heading for a population failure on the scale of the collapse of Atlantic cod.

In his book, Who Killed the Grand Banks, Rose suggests that sockeye are beset by the same conflicting political agendas that enabled East Coast fishermen to push cod to the brink of extinction.

“Mr. Harper deserves credit for this decision. It’s long overdue,” Rose said in an interview. “After seeing the denial and obfuscation of DFO and its regime on the East Coast with the collapse of the Grand Banks cod, I’m convinced that we need to get these people on the stand and under oath.”

Documents show that while the Department of Fisheries and Oceans was officially predicting strong sockeye returns and a commercial fishing opportunity for Fraser sockeye in 2009, others at DFO were warning of a probable collapse based on grim results in ocean test fishing programs dating back to 2007.

B.C. New Democrat and Liberal MPs, first nations, commercial and sport fishing groups, conservation groups and local governments have all been calling on the government for action but until Harper’s announcement there was no evidence that the Tories intended to respond.

The reason for the decline remains a mystery, although poor marine survival rates among juvenile salmon migrating into the ocean for the first time appear to be the principal culprit.

Climate change effecting ocean temperature, declining ocean salinity, dwindling food resources and health threats from fish farms along salmon migration routes have been suggested as possible explanations — but the official position of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans is that no specific cause is known.

Chief Bob Chamberlin, secretary treasurer of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs, called Harper’s announcement “excellent news.”

“I think it’s crucial that they release a complete understanding of what happened with the sockeye collapse here on the West Coast,” Chamberlin said.

He wants the inquiry to look at potential for sea lice infestations and disease transfer from salmon farms to juvenile wild salmon.

“I would urge the Prime Minister to make the necessary resources available for intervenors to participate — if not, you’ll have well-resourced industries like fish farms participate and put their spin on things, and other people who could inform the whole process will be excluded.”

Craig Orr, executive director of Watershed Watch Salmon Society, wants the inquiry to look at the “disconnect” between DFO researchers who warned in 2007 of the pending collapse based on an absence of juvenile 2009-class Fraser sockeye in ocean test fishing, and DFO’s “rosy” pre-season forecasts for the 2009 sockeye Fraser return.

“An inquiry should allow them to compel testimony from the managers and the scientists, which is good,” Orr said.

Commercial gillnetter and troller Rick Burns, who abandoned the Fraser in favour of fishing the north B.C. coast four years ago, said he’s “all for” the inquiry and said it needs to be a “far ranging inquiry because there are so many factors that affect salmon.”

Phil Eidsvik, spokesman for the BC Fisheries Survival Coalition, said the inquiry is “great news for B.C. salmon.

“I couldn’t be more pleased – we have been asking for a full judicial inquiry into the management of Fraser salmon since 1992,” Eidsvik said.

“Harper has shown that he understands how important salmon is to B.C. and is putting his government under a microscope to ensure that B.C. salmon don’t go the way of Atlantic cod.”

ssimpson@vancouversun.com

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun"

It's Getting Hot in Here (actually, out there!)

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We are in the middle of a heat wave. Temperature records are being smashed all over the province, and the forecast is for crazy hot weather for the next week and beyond. If there is one true statement I can make about residents in BC's lower mainland (Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley) its that we are never satisfied with the weather. Ever. In the winter we bitch about the rain and cold. This year we bitched about the snow and ice and the lack of rain. In the summer we bitch about the heat. This year we say that its been the best spring/summer ever but omigod its too f-ing hot! It's always either too hot, too cold, too windy, too rainy, to snowy, too humid, too dry... too something. Right now its approaching 35 C for daytime highs, feeling like almost 40 C with the humidity, and my brain feels like its been boiled into mush. But hey its sunny and beautiful, so I'll try not to bitch too much.

Now if I were a sockeye, I'd have real reason for complaint. Fraser River water temperatures are hovering around 20 C right now, and are predicted to rise to close to 22 C by Aug. 5th. Which means that the risk of mortality for the migrating sockeye is huge. Astronomical, even, given that the water is only going to continue to heat up. And not only that, but early season numbers of returning fish have fallen well below the estimates, causing the Pacific Salmon Commission to cut their pre-season estimates. For example, the Fraser's earliest run of sockeye is the Stuart Run. Pre-season projections put the run at approximately 165,000 fish. This number has decreased four times in the last month, to around 85,000 returning Stuart fish. That's a 48% drop. Early summer run sockeye numbers were projected pre-season to be 739,000 fish, and that number has dropped an astounding 64% to fall to 264,000 fish. Needless to say, due to unfavourable conditions and low returns, all commercial and recreational fishing opportunities for sockeye are non-existent. At this time, the First Nations will be allowed to fish, although even they will probably have to reduce their catch.

Maybe the fish are late, but things are certainly not working in their favour right now. This does not bode well for what is supposed to be a big-cycle year for sockeye, with around 10 million fish projected to return to the Fraser and its tributaries in the 2009 season. Last years numbers were at about 1.7 million sockeye for the season, well below the yearly average of 4.4 million.

I'm not going to start posturing about what we need to do for our declining runs, or give you un educated theories on the reasons for the decline. I'll just leave you with the numbers, and the hope that this season isn't a horrendous disaster.

Now off to continue the slow bake in this inescapable heat.

And PS: I received my tourist visa for Russia - its official! Two weeks less 7 hours before my plane departs, and holy crap do I ever need to tie flies!!!!!!! Donations will be gratefully accepted!